The COVID-19 crisis is, in our view, a catalyst to some deep societal changes, or more accurately an accelerant to those that were already underway. As with the early stages of the pandemic, many of these changes today remain unappreciated by both citizens and investors, and, to the extent they persist, will have major implications for us all. We believe that investors who actively consider these changes earliest stand to reap the best rewards for their stakeholders.
We therefore set out for you below some resources and links that we’ve found useful in stimulating a re-evaluation of our fundamental investment beliefs. We hope they help you and your colleagues also in that important task.
Firstly though, here’s our own summary of the key "big picture" macro thoughts and themes arising from or impacted by the crisis that we already see morphing into different attitudes and behaviours for individuals, countries and governments. Should these themes persist, the world will be a very different place in the future.
Resources and links to help you think further about some potential fundamental changes that the COVID-19 pandemic may accelerate or initiate, their investment implications and key second order investment opportunities arising therefrom are set out below.
The following sources have been particularly helpful in developing our thinking around the situation.
Epsilon Theory – Every day, Epsilon Theory runs the world's financial news through natural language processing-based cluster analysis to identify the most on-narrative stories. | Ben Hunt and Rusty Guinn produce some of the best investment writing on the web (in our opinion). Challenging norms, behaviours and identifying the dominant narratives being set for mass consumption, the team are passionate about doing the right thing. Second Foundation Partners, the publishers of Epsilon Theory, are committed to real change in the practice of investing and the practice of citizenship. |
Three Body Capital, a weekly briefing with insights that “go beyond the obvious” | A relatively new bunch of UK investors, developing an investment business from several interesting perspectives. Crisp, fresh, ground-up writing and thinking. |
Peak Prosperity “insights for prospering as our world changes” | Early onto the SARS-Cov-2 pandemic and continually ahead of the curve. Best investment suggestion to date? “Plant a garden.” Excellent daily updates. |
Votivation: My own early efforts at considering and capturing the impact of the pandemic. |
CoVid-19 coronavirus. A black swan’s potential impact on pensions, society & geopolitics Read now |
London Business School |
The economics of a pandemic – the case of Covid-19 Read now |
UK - HM Government COVID-19 website | Read now |
Imperial University COVID-19 Modelling Report | Read now |
Andreesen Horowitz |
A really good store of various useful resources. Read now |
Worldometer |
“Making world statistics available in a thought-provoking and time relevant format”, one of the best free reference websites in the world. Read now |
OurWorldinData |
Consistently excellent stats, presented creatively. Read now |
Medcram’s Youtube special COVID-19 channel with critical care specialist Dr Roger Seheult illustrates key developments about COVID-19 and SARS-CoV-2 pathophysiology, transmission, prevention, treatment options & trials, vaccine advances, data trends, as well as the response from governments, hospitals, and communities. |
Dr Seheult gives excellent daily updates, with really accessible, often hand-drawn, graphics bringing you up to speed to an A-level standard or beyond with the detailed medical aspects of understanding the virus. Fascinating. Read now Watch on YouTube |
Charles Eisenstein – the Coronation (Mar 2020) | “For years, normality has been stretched nearly to its breaking point, a rope pulled tighter and tighter, waiting for a nip of the black swan’s beak to snap it in two. Now that the rope has snapped, do we tie its ends back together, or shall we undo its dangling braids still further, to see what we might weave from them?” This essay asks all the right questions….and more. |
Google Collaborative: 2nd Order Effects | “Second-order effects are often surprising. Who would’ve thought that cars would eventually lead to hotel and restaurant chains?” A potentially interesting collaborative approach to capturing 2nd order effects of COVID-19’s changes in behaviours. Possibly limited by the contributors (by definition), but ambitiously expansive. |
Unherd – Will Gen Z recover from Covid? | “'Zoomers' will enter the workforce against the backdrop of both the Great Recession and the Great Lockdown.” Having experienced not one, but two, “1-in-a-100 years” events in just 12 years, for me, this is the social demographic likely to be at most risk of justified radicalism. Unherd examines this prospect with a critical eye. |
We highlight below the following key medium-term themes we are contemplating and hope to address in forthcoming articles:
Here at Haven Green, we’ve been following the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus pandemic closely since late January. Unlike the 2008-09 Global Financial Crisis, or even the Great Depression of 1929-30, this time, for nearly every human being on the planet, it’s personal. In my own case, two of my immediate family are COVID-19 vulnerable due to immune-deficiency issues and I have 10 elders in my wider family, close aunts and uncles, including my mother, all in the high-risk demographic category. Currently part-way through a 12-week isolation in the UK, one has been fighting stage 4 cancer for the last 2 years.
In 2007-08 I was substantially unaware of the nature and consequences of the mortgage-backed securities market. After Lehman Brothers collapsed, like many investors, I began quickly to get to grips with the subject and over the course of the next year or so got up-to-speed (-ish) on most of the critical impacts and relationships, particularly with respect to bank regulatory capital. In this crisis, I’ve been somewhat early, in part led by a number of individuals I’ve followed online for a few years now, whose investment thinking generally has either coincided with my own views (without apology, in true online "echo-chamber" fashion) or more usually has added significantly to my understanding of the world. Links to a number of them are included above.
Thereafter, my fear of personal family loss has driven me to be as fully on the case as possible. This is me, minimising the chances of my own maximum regret outcome - that I lose a loved on to COVID-19, before "their time". Most specifically I’ve investigated the biology of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus, its effects on the human body and available or potential mitigants in perhaps as much depth as a non-medical person can. For, as in 2008-09, in order to survive the crisis economically (and this time around physically too), in order to win this war, we should aim firstly to know the enemy and then if at all possible to subdue it without fighting (as per Sun Tzu’s “The Art of War”).
We hope you enjoy and benefit from the above and would be delighted with your feedback.