Welcome to our thoughts on how COVID-19 is affecting private markets investing in the immediate and longer term. We hope you find these of use to you in your forward investment planning.
Although we don't especially feature in this initial series Private Equity and Real Estate strategies (as we've hitherto viewed these as riskier in the short term, mainly due to pricing, leverage and quality concerns - and have to date therefore steered clear of equity managers in such strategies), we do have the following observations:
Given the GP experience of 2008-10, we're already seeing early calls from managers to draw down LP commitments for three principal reasons:
Investors should anticipate an additional 12-18months or more deferral on previously expected distributions.
Reports of LP defaults are so far minimal, though we expect these to grow.
LPs might be best advised to exercise caution in approving GP requests for adjustments to current terms (fund duration extensions, mandate changes eg to include flexibility to investing in debt or follow-on capital/recycled proceeds into existing companies). Liquidity should and usually does follow success, not failure.
Looking further out, the opportunities and specialist strategies many investors will seek to overweight include healthcare (infrastructure and life sciences), non-discretionary consumer staples and technology (but not all sub-sectors). We also anticipate increased opportunities over the next
2-3 years in secondaries, distressed and special situations.
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CLICK HERE to attend in weeks beginning 11th or 18th May 2020 |
Many open-ended funds have, sensibly and (in the UK) in line with FCA rules, suspended trading and we also know of some funds that have closed. Most private markets Real Estate GPs are under less pressure for the timebeing at least. But the risk of LPs defaulting on their capital commitments is, undoubtedly, rising.
Tenant and landlord relationships can be expected to come under intense pressure over the next 12 months and, perhaps, for a number of years. We expect a wave of substantial tenant defaults in the 2nd Quarter (up to 80% perhaps in some sectors, especially retail, office and PRS perhaps). There are some mitigants - government support packages for tenants, lower interest/loan rates, etc. - but these will hit value and valuations hard.
As for construction assets, beyond the new uncertainties of supply-chain resilience affecting all sectors - especially the issues surrounding social distancing, workers and materials (particularly if imported), transportation, and so on - we see specific issues ahead for new office construction, and a repositioning following the
increased propensity for home-working.
It's not all doom and gloom for city office demand however, as complex factors are at play; for example, whilst overall office worker demand may decline, the desk space needed to accommodate each worker in a social distancing "safety" environment could rise, and thus compensate to some degree....(and to the extent any of this is "permanent")! In that complexity, in time, there may even be some hope for flexible office providers; a sector that's set to take somewhat of a beating short term.
The comments above on older vintages seem to apply to an even greater extent for Private Equity and Real Estate sectors.
At Haven Green, because we've selected robust, long-term themes and strategies positioned for a turn in the cycle, we currently represent some high quality, resilient managers and strategies that are well-positioned to ride out the pandemic or exploit its side-effects, including:
Strategy | With our thanks for input to... |
Businesses and Teams
Finally and importantly, all our managers' teams, personnel and key suppliers remain in good physical health. Each firm has taken steps to protect staff and clients from the immediate impacts of the virus. Specific organisational measures and crisis-resilient IT infrastructure has enabled them all to be fully operational.
For COVID-19's most immediate operational, pricing and origination impacts, please click on the following links to review each sector in turn: